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The authority and legitimacy of Iran's rulers are being challenged in unprecedented ways both within the establishment and from outside. The 12 June 2009 election marked a turning point in the country's history. Its contested results triggered massive street demonstrations and a subsequent government crackdown. There seems little doubt that the results making Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner over Mir Hossein Mousavi were rigged. The election was the catalyst for an outpouring of popular discontent and anger at the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Many people, particularly the young, are frustrated with stagnant economic conditions and lack of employment opportunities. The demographic shifts, the majority of the population is under thirty, and increased levels of education, particularly among women, combined with new technologies have created a volatile cocktail for the theocratic regime. The government has been unable to keep the lid on information. As the 1978-79 uprising against the shah was dubbed the cassette revolution then today may be called its twitter/facebook version. Cell phone cameras conveyed images of Neda Agha Soltan, the young woman killed in the streets of Tehran, around the world in moments. Her bloodied face became an iconic symbol.
The demonstrations and opposition to the regime continue despite efforts of security forces, the Pasdaran (Revolutionary Guards) and the Basij-e-Mostafazin (Mobilization of the Oppressed) to quell them. The Pasdaran and Basij were created by Ayatollah Khomeni after the Islamic Revolution. The Basij, like the Guards, answer to the Supreme Leader, Rahbar. The Basij, mostly recruited from poor areas, are the street enforcers of the regime. The Pasdaran, apparently taken a cue from Pakistan and China, have amassed much economic power. This has put them in competition and at odds with other sectors of the Iranian economy. The government has awarded the Pasdaran with many lucrative contracts.
Mousavi, a stalwart of the Revolution, and who was prime minister during the 1980s, has emerged as a focal point of the opposition. It seems he has been carried by the protestors rather than leading them. Mousavi is no saint. During his tenure as prime minister, thousands of political prisoners were executed. His wife, Zahra Rahnavard, an artist and academic, who openly campaigned with him, has also become an important figure.
The influential cleric and former president, Hashemi Rafsanjani, who heads the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council, is aligned with the moderates. At the same time he is reputed to be one of the richest men in Iran. He is seen as a voice for business interests who want to end Iran's international isolation and reverse some of Ahmadinejad's economic policies, which have contributed, to high unemployment and inflation. In addition, the morality squads that stop women in the streets and lecture them on the impropriety of their appearance are widely resented. Hamid Dabashi, Columbia University professor, and himself Iranian, has emphasized that the uprising has a strong civil rights component. Another Iranian, Ali Reza Ahmadpour, a long time activist, told me women are playing a key role in the struggle for rights and gender equality.
The post-election events have made clear that something fundamental has shifted in Iran. Authoritarian states rule by fear. The specter of violence is always in the background. Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Leader's authority has been questioned. With people chanting "Death to the Dictator" and "Down with the Tyrant," the mystique of regime omnipotence is shattered and is unlikely to be reconstructed. With their monopoly on force the regime may remain in power. But for how long one can only speculate. But one thing is for sure. June 12 and its aftermath have altered the shape of Iranian politics.
There is now a sharp rift within the Islamic clerical elite. For example, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, among others, has spoken critically about the regime policies. Montazeri is a significant senior figure in the Islamic establishment based in the religious centre of Qum. He was once designated as Khomeini's successor but after criticizing human rights abuses, he was passed over for the much less qualified Ali Khamenei. Resentments no doubt linger over that. After the June 2009 election, he said, "no one in their right mind can believe" the results and he called the regime "usurpers and "transgressors." He has advocated greater freedoms.
On 17 July 2009, Rafsanjani, in a major Friday sermon at Tehran University, said the government has lost the trust of the people and he demanded that all those arrested during the protests following the election be released. He also suggested that a council of clerics replace the existing single supreme leader. If implemented, this would mark a major departure in governance. Then a few days later another reformer, Mohammad Khatami, who preceded Ahmadinejad as president, called for a referendum on the legitimacy of the government.
While the immediate threat of U.S. military action against Iran has receded-Washington is much more focused on the situation in Afghanistan and nuclear armed Pakistan-the Obama administration still chants the familiar mantra: all options are on the table. The U.S. continues to warn Iran, in less war-like language than Bush and Cheney, it must not develop nuclear weapons. Outside of official circles are people like Newt Gingrich, the former Republican Speaker of the House and a possible presidential candidate. He has called for "sabotage" and "covert operations to try and replace the regime," in Tehran. And then there is always the potential of an Israel attack on Iran. The right-wing Netanyahu government in Tel Aviv has made no secret of its military options vis-à-vis Tehran. Israel has nuclear weapons and is not a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty. And it enjoys crucial economic, diplomatic and military support from Washington. On 5 July, Vice President Biden was asked whether the U.S. would stand in the way if the Israelis decided to launch a military attack against Iranian nuclear facilities. His response was, "Look, we cannot dictate to another sovereign nation what they can and cannot do." Given the long history of constant U.S. interference in the affairs of sovereign nations this comment is laughable. Biden, like many American politicians, is suffering from an acute case of historical amnesia.
It is impossible to predict how events will unfold in Iran but one thing is certain: a fundamental shift has occurred and the status quo ante can't be restored. Shirin Ebadi, Iran's Nobel Prize-winner once told me her favorite Hafez couplet, that is relevant today:
If there is no justice,
Then those who are deprived
may one day take to the streets and rise up.
